The Baseline

In order to measure progress, you have to establish a baseline. The duathlon I'm aiming for is a classic distance:

10km run - 40km bike - 5km run

I figure that in order to qualify, I need to run the 10km as close as possible to 40 min, cycle the 40 km in about 1:20 hrs and finish off with about a 21 min 5 km run, giving me a finish time of 2:21 hrs. Giving that the winner at the Worlds usually turns in a time of 2:10 hrs to 2:15 hrs, depending on whether it's hilly or flat, it puts me way off that time, but should put me in with a good shot at qualifying.

Currently, times don't look so rosy. Based on a recent 10km race and a shorter duathlon, I'm currently able to

• run 10km in 43 min
• cycle 20km with an average speed of 32 km/h.

So this is what I'm working towards:

• sub-40 min 10k time by February 2011
• building bike fitness over the winter to maintain an average speed of 20 mph (= 33 km/h) over 40km